CHAPTER 3 STOCK FLOW DIAGRAM & CAUSAL LOOP

Problem Statement

The exponential behavior in the number of OFWs will affect the social costs (family ties), this may encourage more and more OFWs to return which in turn will cause the remittances to the country to decrease.

FIgure 3.0 - Levels of Overseas Workers from 1970 to 2007

Stock Flow Diagram

Figure 3.1 - OFW Stock Flow Diagram

Figure 3.1 shows the stock flow diagram generated for this study. It consists of 2 levels, 4 rates, and 4 variables. The levels are supply of OFWs and Demand for OFWs. The rates are New Foreign Job Opportunities, Fulfilled Foreign Job Opportunities, OFW Applications, and Returning OFWs. Finally, the variables which are No. of Broken Families, No. of Children Left Behind, Social Costs, and Remittances. The leverage variable in this diagram is the rate of returning OFWs. This rate will affect one of the most important variables in the system which is remittances. This will be explained further.

Levels and Rates

Figure 3.2 - Levels and Rats for Demend for OFWs

Figure 3.2 shows the levels and the rates for the demand of OFWs. New foreign job opportunities increase the demand for OFWs, this is a constant value. On the other hand, fulfilled foreign job opportunities reduces the demand for OFWs.

FIgure 3.3 - Level and Rates for Supply of OFWs

Figure 3.3 shows the second set of levels and rates which consists of supply of OFWs. The supply of OFWs is increased by the number of OFW applicants and reduced by the number of Returning OFWs.

Variables and Relationships

Figure 3.4 - Relationships between New Foreign Job Opportunities, OFW Application, Remittance, Supply of OFW, and Fulfilled Foreign Job Opportunities

Figure 3.4 explores several relationships between the variables New Foreign Job Opportunities, OFW Application, Remittance, Supply of OFWs, and Fulfilled Foreign Job Opportunities, which are all highlighted in red. The first relationship is a positive link from new foreign job opportunities to OFW applications since as more and more foreign job opportunities arise more OFWs will apply and take their chance at these opportunities. The second relation ship is from Supply of OFWs to Remittances. There is a positive link from the supply of OFWs to remmitances as OFWs are their source, as the number of OFWs increase so does the amount of remittances to our country. The third relationship is a positive link from Supply of OFWs to Fulfilled Foreign Job Opportunities. This goes to show that if there are more OFWs then more foreign job opportunities are fulfilled.

Figure 3.5 - relationships between social cost, number of children left behind, no. of broken families, supply of OFWs, and returning OFWs

Figure 3.5 explores several relationships between 5 variables. These are supply of OFWs, no. of broken families, no. of children left behind, social costs, and returning OFWs, all relationships are highlighted in red. The first relationship is a positive link from supply of OFWs to returning OFWs, this shows that as there are more OFWs more OFWs will also return. The next set of relationships are a succession positive links which originate from supply of OFWs to both no. of broken familes and no of children left behind and then their positive links converge on social costs which then has a positive link to returning OFWs. There is a positive link from the level supply of OFWs to both variables of no. of broken families and no. of children left behind because as the more and more OFWs leave for abroad more children are left behind and more families are broken. From the previously discussed variables, there is a positive link to social costs this shows that as the no. of children left behind and the no. of broken families increase the social costs to each worker also increases. Finally, the last relationship is a positive link from social costs to returning OFWs. This explains as the social costs of each OFW increases then the more likely they are to return from abroad.

Figure 3.6 - Relationship from Demand to Returning OFWs

Figure 3.6 shows the last set of relationship is the positive link from demand to returning OFWs. This shows as the demand for OFWs increase, then the number of returning OFWs decreases as more and more OFWs would be worker longer abroad. There is also a negative link from Returning OFWs to Fulfilled Foreign Job Opportunities as the number of returning OFWs increase then the number of fulfilled foreign job opportunities decreases.

Causal Loop Diagram

Figure 3.7 - Causal Loop Diagram

Figure 3.7 shows the causal loop diagram. The causal loop diagram is similar to the stock flow diagram, however, it only through this that we will be able to see the feedback loops in the system. There are 5 feedback loops in the system 3 of which are negative feedback loops and 2 positive feedback loops, this can be related to Peter Senge's "Limits to Growth" archetype.

Feedback Loop 1

Figure 3.8 - Feedback Loop 1

Figure 3.8 is a positive feedback loop between the variables demand for OFWs, returning OFWs and Fulfilled Foreign Job oppotunities. The relationships from Demand for OFWs to Returning OFWs to Fulfilled foreign Job Opportunities have been explained earlier in Figure 3.6. The only unseen relationship from the stock flow is the relationship from fulfilled foreign job oppportunities to demand for OFWs, as the number of fulfilled foreign job opportunities increase, then the demand for OFWs decreases.

Feedback Loop 2

Figure 3.9 - Feedback Loop 2

Figure 3.9 is another positive feedback loop between the variables returning OFWs, Supply of OFWs, Fulfilled Foreign Job Opportunities, and demand for OFWs. The relationships between these variables have been explained in Figure 3.4 & 3.6. The only unseen relationship from the stock flow is the negative link from returning OFWs to supply of OFWs, this explains that if the number of returning OFWs increases then the supply of OFWs decreases.

Feedback Loop 3

Figure 3.10 - Feedback Loop 3

Figure 3.10 shows a negative feedback loop between the variables returning OFWs and Supply of OFWs. This shows the relationship that as the number of supply of OFWs increase so does the number of returning OFWs. On the other hand, as the number of returning OFWs increase the supply of OFWs decrease.

Feedback Loop 4

Figure 3.11 - Feedback Loop 4

Figure 3.11 shows a negative feedback loop consisting of the variables supply of OFWs, no. of broken families, social costs, and returning OFWs. The relationships of these variables have been explained earlier in Figure 3.5.

Feedback Loop 5

Figure 3.12 - Feedback Loop 5

Figure 3.12 shows a negative feedback loop consisting of the variables supply of OFWs, no. of children left behind, social costs, and returning OFWs. The relationships of these variables have also been explained in Figure 3.5